Turns out it’s not glass, but wood.
This is not about Donald Trump, but Hillary’s ongoing difficulties with her own voter base, as expressed in both ongoing polling but more importantly, measured against real performance by real liberal candidates in real, true blue states since the 2000 election.
I wanted to know how Mrs Clinton was measuring up against Gore, Kerry and Obama in CT, MA, NJ and PA in the northeast corridor, MN, MI, WI and IL in the next time zone, and NM in the west.
With the exception of New Mexico in 2004, who went for Bush by less than a percentage point, all these states were roaring blue by a significant margin, with only 5 narrow margins out of 36 total election tallies; NM in 2000, MN in 2000, 2004 and WI 2000, 2004, all Bush win years.
More importantly to all things Hillary, in all but three tallies, again during those Bush win years, the Democrat candidate received more than 50% of the vote, exceeding 55% in half, and 6 times over 60%.
To be fair I’m using only the 50% benchmark as Hillary’s wooden ceiling, while the (real clear) average is closer to 55% and I have chosen RealClearPolitics, with all their known deficiencies, as the barometer of Hillary’s distress with her voter base.
CT: Clinton 47-40 (RCP), where Dems carried the state from 54%-61%, 10pts-18pts (>7)
MA: Clinton 49-28 (in 4-way) where Dems carried the state with over 60% in each year. (>11)
NJ: Clinton 51-40 where Dems carried the state with over 53%, and double digit wins. (>2)
PA: Clinton 48-42 where Dems carried the state over 51% each year; (>3)
IL: Clinton 48-33 where Dems carried the state over 55% each year; (>7)
MN: Clinton 45-41 where Dems carried the state over 51% in 3 of 4 years (>6)
WI: Clinton 45-39 where Dems carried the state over 53% w/Obama and 0.2% under Bush; (>8)
MI: Clinton 47-35 where Dems carried the state over 51% each year (*Noteworthy, in the recent spate of Trump sex news, Trump dropped from 41% to 35% in a five day period, but Hillary did not advance even a point.) (>4)
NM: Clinton 45-34, where Dems carried the state in ’08-’12 w/ double digit margins over 53%. (>8)
I’ve made no discussion of Trump’s numbers, especially since in heavy Dem states, union members and African Americans are not likely to speak their preference out loud, or for that matter, even be polled. The same for Bernie Sanders voters, from college millennials to white-haired lefties, who really dislike Hillary (and have been urged by Susan Sarandon and Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate who got almost half-a-million votes in 2012, to vote Trump.
Then there is the whole aura of the “hidden voters” who hadn’t voted since Reagan’s days, and fell off the radar screen. They surprised the world by carrying Ronald Reagan to a comfortable victory on basically the same “Make America Great Again” theme as Trump has employed and are very clearly animated this year.
Time will tell if these hidden voters materialize, and Trump’s numbers will grow in these states. Just remember, these are deep blue states, but Trump is likely in competition in NM, MN, WI and MI.
But if Hillary’s numbers hold in blue states, and Trump enthusiasm stays upin the red states, I can’t see her getting more than 44%-45% of the national vote and that does no equate to a national electoral college victory.
So, on election night, at 8 PM, when the polls close on the east coast, and you see that Hillary has not broken the 50% ceiling in the east, you will know that she ran her head into a wood ceiling, and has lost from 5%-15% of her liberal voter base, and it may well be a long night for her as the election follows the sun west, for the one thing we know is that liberals generally think alike, and if 10% fewer liberals like Hillary in Connecticut, at least that many won’t like her elsewhere in America. Susan Sarandon tends to bear this out.
(Do your own assessment; Just go to Google and enter the search bar: Presidential election, (name state) (name year) and see the actual election results. Then pick your favorite polling group, or most unfavorite, someone like Monmouth.)
If Hillary is polling below 50% in those states she’s in trouble, even big trouble if you believe, as I do, her real wooden ceiling is closer to 55%. Losing 7% of your voter base, against a shadow army on voters they can’t find or count, may be more than all the efforts Obama’s illegals and standard Democrat voter theft games can match.