GOP Wave Breaks Across America


elephant-stompThe votes have all been cast (except in Louisiana – note below), and the counting is mostly done. Election 2014 was a wave election of epic proportions.

Republican Victories:

 U.S. Senate Totals: +7 (worst case), +10 (Unlikely best case), +9 (Most likely outcome)

 U.S. Senate Balance of Power GOP 52 (Minimum) – DEM and IND 48 (Maximum)

• 4 U.S. Senate gains in red states – MT, SD, AR, WV
• 3 U.S. Senate gains in purple or blue states – CO, IA, NC
• 1 Likely U.S. Senate win in red state once votes are completely counted – AK
• 1 Likely U.S. Senate gain in red state pending runoff – LA
• 1 Narrow U.S. Senate loss in a purple/blue state (recount may be needed) – VA
• 0 U.S. Senate incumbent GOP losses
• First female U.S. Senator in 2 states – Joni Ernst (R, IA) and Shelley Moore Capito (R, WV)
• First publicly elected black U.S. Senator from the South – Tim Scott (R, SC)

 U.S. House balance of power GOP 243 (Minimum) – DEM 192 (Maximum)
 On track for largest GOP majority in nearly 100 years

• +10 GOP seats in U.S. House called so far
• +15 GOP still possible when all races are complete

 Governor’s houses shifted to GOP

• Only vulnerable GOP governor to lose is PA (Alaska still undetermined)
• GOP gained 4 governorships

o +3 in blue states of MA, MD, IL
o +1 in red state AR
o VT and CT probably DEM, but GOP very close

 State Legislatures

o GOP gains across the map (information still developing)
o MN State House switches from DEM(DFL) to GOP

The country will next be inundated with pundits trying to explain what that means. Democrats and the mainstream media will work very hard to explain the GOP wins away. Expect to hear that because New Hampshire did not go Republican it does not count as a wave. Expect to hear that people did not mean to vote for the GOP, they just had a bad day. Expect to hear that the Democrats would have won big, but their voters did not go to the polls because of _________(insert talking point here; voter suppression, racism, daylight savings time, lunar eclipses, etc).

The reality is that the Republicans ran a lot of good candidates (note in places like Minnesota Senate, bad GOP candidates performed in line with normal red/blue results). Harry Reid also spent his time as Majority Leader avoiding his job: not allowing GOP amendments, not passing budgets, sitting on House passed bills. The intent was to label the GOP house as obstructionist, but Harry Reid’s Democratic Senate got the credit it deserved. Obama generally and Obamacare specifically are still highly unpopular. National security, a long time GOP strength, had been temporarily held by Obama – ISIS, Ebola, and the Ukraine “reset” that issue. The Democratic candidates went all-in on the tired “war on women” meme, and it fell flat. Lastly, by all accounts, conservative Republicans who have been dissatisfied with the GOP have decided a party with Mitch McConnell and John Boehner can be stomached if it includes Ted Cruz,Joni Ernst and Mia Love.

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Scott MacHardy
Retired Army. Disabled Veteran. Constitutional Conservative. Ordained Minister.
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Retired Army. Disabled Veteran. Constitutional Conservative. Ordained Minister.

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