The GOP presidential primary in 2016 is going to be a whole new ballgame. The GOP National Convention will most likely be in late June. This means the GOP nominee will have access to campaign money much earlier, unlike Romney who was beat up all summer in 2012, unable to spend big until after the late August Convention.
Texas will be the first big state primary on March 1. Assuming the TX GOP holds all the statewide offices and maintains majorities in the House and Senate, it will have a record number of delegates, 2nd only to California (just 7 less than CA). States won’t be line-jumping in 2016. The new RNC rules are so severe, any state that goes earlier than designated gives up virtually all its delegates.
Texas will use a modified winner take all system of allocating delegates in 2016. The details will be decided at the 2014 Texas GOP convention in Ft Worth. It seems likely state delegates will choose to award national delegates on a Congressional district basis with a primary nominee who gets 50% plus 1 of the votes getting all the delegates. Failing the 50 + 1 threshold, delegates would likely be awarded on a proportional basis with no candidate under 20% of the 2016 presidential primary vote receiving any delegates.
Texans and outgoing Governor Rick Perry have been brashly asking to “Let Texas Lead.” That appears to be the case for 2016. As Rick (hey, hey) said in the movie Casa Blanca, fate seems to taken a hand. For better or worse we will have a compressed Republican primary with Texas playing an early major role. Cowboy, up?