Outreach to Hispanics is unlikely to win presidential elections for Republicans. The fact is there were less total votes cast in 2012 than 2008. Hispanics cast about 13 million votes, 27% of which went to Romney. While Romney lost by 5 million votes (compared to McCain’s 10m), he would have needed 70% of the Hispanic vote to have beaten Obama.
Back when Reagan did amnesty, in the next presidential election Hispanics gave Bush 41 only 30.8% of their vote, a shockingly worse result. So, are Hispanics really Republicans waiting for a reason to vote Republican?
What happened in 2012 to carry the day for Obama? The war on women was successful with Obama getting 55 percent of that vote (women were 53% of the total vote) and the 18% of the electorate under 30 voted for Obama nearly 2-1. The overall Republican vote was disappointing, especially in Texas, which finished number 48 in turnout. You read that right.
Outreach to Hispanics done correctly is a good thing but the facts don’t indicate that it will prove key in the next presidential election.