The “Obama’s Inevitable” Meme? It’s a Crock!!

Well, away from the maddening spin of +12 Dem Sampled Candy Crowley/EEyore polls, here’s some angst-filled numbers for the Donks. The first number is the ’12 early vote margin for the Dems, the 2nd is the ’08 early vote margin. Following that comparison is the margin of victory for The One in ’08 (these numbers are through Saturday, November 3rd):
Iowa:                         +10/+18          +9
Florida                      +4/+9             +3
North Carolina        +17/+21          <1%
Colorado                   -2/+2                +8
PA                                -5/-1               +10
So just based just on the changes in early voting, you’re looking at Romney winning NC and Florida, IA is a toss-up, CO is within striking distance and PA’s number of early votes is only 5% of the total.
And Ohio? Obama won Ohio by 262,000 votes in 2008. So far this year, he’s 190,000 votes under his 2008 total; meanwhile Romney is 80,000 above what McCain had. And those 2 together and Romney has totally erased Obama’s eventual margin of victory in ’08. Which means all Romney has to do today is match McCain’s numbers from ’08 and he wins Ohio. Is there any sentient person out there who doesn’t believe that Romney’s support among Republicans is higher than McCain’s, or that the GOP in Ohio is less engaged than they were in ’08?
Now, here comes (gasp!) the media bias.
Was reading an article at the WAPO which looked at these numbers and said “hmmmm….looks like a tossup.” Well, here’s what they “conveniently” forgot: Indies are breaking for Romney by anywhere from 8-15% depending on the polls. So any state that’s even close (like CO/PA/IA) will go for Romney if the Indies hold for the Mittster.
Strange, isn’t it, how the MFM in every election just fawns all over the Independents with ceasely stories about how the GOP just must do something to capture their votes and then this cycle, they suddenly forget all about them even though (because?) they’re going to provide Mitt with his margin of victory.
So, what does this mean?
It’s simple: the Obama campaign is a lot of things but stupid isn’t one of them. They can count and they know they’re in a world of hurt vis-a-vis 2008. So there only possible route to victory lies through intimidation and ‘inevitability.’ And, aided by their sycophantic friends in the MFM, they have been beating that drum incessantly for months.
Solution: Ignore the pundits. Ignore the polls. Find a friend. Find a relative. Find an office compatriot.
And Go. Vote.
The only way they win this is if we don’t.
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Constitutional conservative living in the frozen tundra. American first, conservative second, and Precinct Committeeman because I got tired of ColdWarrior hassling me about it (which, btw, led me to being elected as GOP County Chair, to my Congressional District Central Committee and to the state Central Committee).
Fervent believer that if we followed the Tenth Amendment more, we'd be hassled by the government a lot less.

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November 6, 2012 12:04 pm

Add to this Gallup’s number that Republican self-identification is 5.8% above Democrat self-identification, and that independents are leaning Republican by around 5-15%. I think those numbers are artificially low too. In any case, using this model the R vs D vote will be +5.8% Republican with more Democrats breaking for Romney than RINOs breaking for Obama and the Independents breaking for Romney too. So not only does the early vote not make a big enough difference for Obama, but his campaign has cannibalized his voters who would normally vote today instead of early, and the result will be even more… Read more »