With about 2 weeks to go, there are some important things to remember about incumbents for any elected position. These are only able to be observed this close to election day.
- If the incumbent does not have poliing favoring by more than 50%, then the last-minute deciders are going to the challenger.
- If the incumbent party does not have registration and early voting at the same pace as the previous election, then the party of the challenger will fare better
Susquehanna Polling & Research has conducted a recent poll in Pennsylvania that has Mitt Romney with a lead over Obama by a 49-45 margin. In addition to the poll they have written an article, Mitt Romney Can Win Pennsylvania Because He Is Winning The “Jobs” Argument. Read the entire article, but here are a list of the critical points.
- The PA Labor Department released its revised unemployment report showing the state’s unemployment rate (8.2%) now officially higher than the nation’s 7.8%. So Pennsylvanians are still suffering from a bleak economy, more so perhaps than neighboring states like Ohio that can attribute their recent job gains to the auto industry.
- Voters in Western Pa, who tend to be blue collar, working class Democrats, care about jobs and resent the President’s war on coal.
- In the vote-rich Southeast collar counties around Philadelphia, Romney is neck-and-neck with Obama because these more affluent, better educated suburban voters identify with Mitt Romney and a lot of what he stands for. They know he’s not an extremist, know he cares about kids and women, saved the Olympics and wants deficits under control.
- There is mounting evidence voters know that the natural gas boom in Pennsylvania is under a direct threat from a second Obama term – while Romney has made it clear he will do everything in his power to cultivate this growing gas industry that has already kept thousands of Pennsylvania families from joining the ranks of the unemployed.
It’s important to remember that the president is elected by how well he fares in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, instead of a national popular vote. While each state is unique, there are important common interests for states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, and Kentucky. Mitt Romney can win all five of these states for 64 EVs, and even George H.W.Bush didn’t do that in his landslide victory over Dukakis in 1988. (West Virginia went for Dukakis that year.)
Winning Pennsylvania is doable, and the Romney campaign are savvy to have Paul Ryan making a speech today in Pittsburgh. Don’t take anything for granted. GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!