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A Realistic Forecast of 2012 US Senate Election

There are 33 US Senate seats in the 2012 election that are currently held by 23 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Compare this to the wave 2010 election (including the special election in Massachusetts), when there were 38 US Senate seats held by 20 Democrats and 18 Republicans. In the 2010 wave the Republicans won 25 seats for a net gain of 7 seats. However, keep in mind the power of the incumbent to win reelection.

    A Summary of 2010 US Senate election

  • 11 Republicans won reelection
  • 11 Democrats won reelection
  • 7 Republicans won open seat election to hold on to Republican seats
  • 2 Democrats won open seat election to hold on to Democrat seats
  • 5 Republicans won open seat election to gain Republican seats
  • 2 Repuplicans defeated incumbents to gain Republican seats

The 2010 US Senate wave election is the best for the Republicans since 1994, but there are no indications that the 2012 US Senate election will be an even larger one. So with that in mind the following is a forecast of the 2012 results. Enthusiastic GOTV effort will be key, and perhaps yield better results.

    A Forecast of 2012 US Senate elections

  • 6 Republicans win reelection
  • 14 Democrats win reelection
  • 3 Republicans win open seat election to hold on to Republican seats
  • 2 Democrats win open seat election to hold on to Democrat seats
  • 2 Republicans defeat incumbents to gain Republican seats
  • 1 Democrat wins open seat election to gain Democrat seat
  • 5 Republicans win open seat election to gain Republican seats

The result is the Republicans have a net gain of 6 seats that puts them with a majority of 53 to 47. It would be wonderful if the Republicans defeated all 16 Democrats running for reelection, but that’s not gonna happen. Listed below are the 16 US Senate contests projected as Republican wins.

6 Republicans win reelection

Scott Brown Massachusetts


Roger Wicker Mississippi


Dean Heller Nevada


Bob Corker Tennessee


Orrin Hatch Utah


John Barasso Wyoming


3 Republicans win open seat election to hold on to Republican seats
Jeff Flake Arizona


Richard Mourdock Indiana


Ted Cruz Texas


2 Republicans defeat incumbents to gain Republican seats
Dennis Rehberg Montana


Josh Mandell Ohio


5 Republicans win open seat election to gain Republican seats
Linda McMahon Connecticut


Debra Fischer Nebraska


Rick Berg North Dakota


George Allen Virginia


Tommy Thompson Wisconsin


pilgrim
I am retired after 36 years of being a state of Indiana employee. I enjoy writing and reading conservative blogs.

9 COMMENTS

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9 COMMENTS

  1. I gotta say, Pilgrim, that is optimistic, but also probably just a little conservative. If the Romney wave continues, I’d give every Republican a 3% coattail effect, putting others in play (I think Akin wins anyway in MO). While not a filibuster proof majority, I’m not averse to playing a little Harry Reid ball for payback, but only if we can dump Mitch as Senate leader. Since the Jan 1 tax cliff is mostly his doing, I hope members and citizens alike are reminded of his having kicked the can down an elevator shaft. He is the one Republican who can snatch defeat from the laws of victory.
    Great report, and one I hope to be able to toast to your sagacity on Nov 7

    • Thanks VB. The only reason I did not include Akin is because of a popular Democrat Governor in MO expected to win reelection and the advantage of incumbency for McCaskill. I don’t agree with those who put down Akin, but beating an incumbent is always more difficult. I agree with dumping McConnell and Speaker Boehner as well.

    • Ditto VB and great report pil’. I may do a column on McCaskill soon. A tangential issue concerns the fate of the various parts of Obamacare with a GOP majority in the Senate. We can repeal, with but a simple majority, all the taxes on employers and individuals, including the individual mandate since the SupCt via the CJ Roberts upheld it at least partially as a tax and not a fine, and appropriations since they are budgetary matters that fall under the senate’s “reconciliation rule”. Moreover, Romney’s Secretary of HHS, thanks to the hundreds of Obama-preferred discretion references in the law, can “decide” to waive much of the law that is not budgetary, including the Death Panel. But the coverage mandates that apply to insurance companies that threaten the private health Ins. market probably cannot be repealed w/o a 60-vote super-majority. However, it may be possible to pass new laws that counteract the pre-existing condition and adult-child provisions, if Romney is of a mind to do so.

      • I’d repeal anyway GC and let SCOTUS decide whether a law not written as a tax can be repealed “not written” as a tax. Gives Roberts a second bite at the apple…in the meantime Romney does, as you suggest, a reverse Obama and begins undoing Obamacare thru exec order. (One of the few 100% pure-and-legal executive orders is to undo previous exec orders.)

        • Yes, the repeal of the individual mandate would surely be upheld, given the actual language of the senate rule. The more problematic question would be if the court would uphold the repeal of non-budgetary mandates by less than a super-majority, but it is also possible that the court would declare the latter a political question that the court would not hear, especially if the GOP parliamentarian allows the vote.

  2. Ohio polls show Mandel and Sherrod tied. FreedomWorks sent out last week a 40-page “voter guide” just on Sherrod. Wish I knew who they sent it to, if just Rs or those on their mailing list it won’t help Mandel. It was addressed to “The Greenberg Household” and since my other half is a Dem, this is what makes me unsure. Tweeted at them but didn’t get an answer.

    Don’t know if you saw this Pil, unioner says they get fined $250 if they don’t show for Warren/Brown debates.

    https://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/are-unions-fining-members-who-dont-support-warren_654203.html

  1. I gotta say, Pilgrim, that is optimistic, but also probably just a little conservative. If the Romney wave continues, I’d give every Republican a 3% coattail effect, putting others in play (I think Akin wins anyway in MO). While not a filibuster proof majority, I’m not averse to playing a little Harry Reid ball for payback, but only if we can dump Mitch as Senate leader. Since the Jan 1 tax cliff is mostly his doing, I hope members and citizens alike are reminded of his having kicked the can down an elevator shaft. He is the one Republican who can snatch defeat from the laws of victory.
    Great report, and one I hope to be able to toast to your sagacity on Nov 7

    • Thanks VB. The only reason I did not include Akin is because of a popular Democrat Governor in MO expected to win reelection and the advantage of incumbency for McCaskill. I don’t agree with those who put down Akin, but beating an incumbent is always more difficult. I agree with dumping McConnell and Speaker Boehner as well.

    • Ditto VB and great report pil’. I may do a column on McCaskill soon. A tangential issue concerns the fate of the various parts of Obamacare with a GOP majority in the Senate. We can repeal, with but a simple majority, all the taxes on employers and individuals, including the individual mandate since the SupCt via the CJ Roberts upheld it at least partially as a tax and not a fine, and appropriations since they are budgetary matters that fall under the senate’s “reconciliation rule”. Moreover, Romney’s Secretary of HHS, thanks to the hundreds of Obama-preferred discretion references in the law, can “decide” to waive much of the law that is not budgetary, including the Death Panel. But the coverage mandates that apply to insurance companies that threaten the private health Ins. market probably cannot be repealed w/o a 60-vote super-majority. However, it may be possible to pass new laws that counteract the pre-existing condition and adult-child provisions, if Romney is of a mind to do so.

      • I’d repeal anyway GC and let SCOTUS decide whether a law not written as a tax can be repealed “not written” as a tax. Gives Roberts a second bite at the apple…in the meantime Romney does, as you suggest, a reverse Obama and begins undoing Obamacare thru exec order. (One of the few 100% pure-and-legal executive orders is to undo previous exec orders.)

        • Yes, the repeal of the individual mandate would surely be upheld, given the actual language of the senate rule. The more problematic question would be if the court would uphold the repeal of non-budgetary mandates by less than a super-majority, but it is also possible that the court would declare the latter a political question that the court would not hear, especially if the GOP parliamentarian allows the vote.

  2. Ohio polls show Mandel and Sherrod tied. FreedomWorks sent out last week a 40-page “voter guide” just on Sherrod. Wish I knew who they sent it to, if just Rs or those on their mailing list it won’t help Mandel. It was addressed to “The Greenberg Household” and since my other half is a Dem, this is what makes me unsure. Tweeted at them but didn’t get an answer.

    Don’t know if you saw this Pil, unioner says they get fined $250 if they don’t show for Warren/Brown debates.

    https://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/are-unions-fining-members-who-dont-support-warren_654203.html

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