There are 33 US Senate seats in the 2012 election that are currently held by 23 Democrats and 10 Republicans. Compare this to the wave 2010 election (including the special election in Massachusetts), when there were 38 US Senate seats held by 20 Democrats and 18 Republicans. In the 2010 wave the Republicans won 25 seats for a net gain of 7 seats. However, keep in mind the power of the incumbent to win reelection.
- 11 Republicans won reelection
- 11 Democrats won reelection
- 7 Republicans won open seat election to hold on to Republican seats
- 2 Democrats won open seat election to hold on to Democrat seats
- 5 Republicans won open seat election to gain Republican seats
- 2 Repuplicans defeated incumbents to gain Republican seats
The 2010 US Senate wave election is the best for the Republicans since 1994, but there are no indications that the 2012 US Senate election will be an even larger one. So with that in mind the following is a forecast of the 2012 results. Enthusiastic GOTV effort will be key, and perhaps yield better results.
- 6 Republicans win reelection
- 14 Democrats win reelection
- 3 Republicans win open seat election to hold on to Republican seats
- 2 Democrats win open seat election to hold on to Democrat seats
- 2 Republicans defeat incumbents to gain Republican seats
- 1 Democrat wins open seat election to gain Democrat seat
- 5 Republicans win open seat election to gain Republican seats
The result is the Republicans have a net gain of 6 seats that puts them with a majority of 53 to 47. It would be wonderful if the Republicans defeated all 16 Democrats running for reelection, but that’s not gonna happen. Listed below are the 16 US Senate contests projected as Republican wins.