There has been a lot of heartburn and rising blood pressures from the reporting of national polls by the malignant media. Some of it is fueled by establishment Republicans going “tsk-tsk, don’t call it sinister.” Recently, Rush Limbaugh mentioned two political science professors at the University of Colorado who forecast presidential elections using alternative criteria which does not include polling. Ken Bickers at the Boulder campus, and Michael Berry at the Denver campus, created a forecasting model that is based on the Electoral College; it is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. To make their predictions, the professors comb economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The professors’ model includes state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in income. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August and changes in per capita income from the end of June. Go here for more details on the methodology used.
The 2012 election is the 9th presidential election cycle using this state economic data and the electoral college. Of note, is that the previous 8 elections have all been successfully predicted based on this model. This different kind of analysis is similar to what Bill James “money ball” analysis is for baseball. In both cases the establishment despises the ideas that challenge their conventional wisdom. Below is a table with their estimates in the last 8 election cycles.
State-Level Economic Forecasting Model Diagnostics: 1980-2008
|Year||States correctly classified||Democrat states(Estimated Actual)||Democrat EV (Estimated Actual)||Outcome correctly classified|
|2008||48||30 29||370 365||Yes|
|2004||46||15 20||217 251||Yes|
|2000||47||23 21||264 266||Yes|
|1996||45||34 32||402 379||Yes|
|1992||41||29 33||347 370||Yes|
|1988||45||11 11||171 111||Yes|
|1984||50||3 2||17 13||Yes|
|1980||42||8 7||68 49||Yes|
The prediction, based on the model analyzing returns from the prior eight presidential elections is that the president will win 16 states, plus the District of Columbia for a total of 208 electoral votes. Mitt Romney will win 34 states for a total of 330 electoral votes. The table below displays Obama’s states. While this forecast is great for pumping up Republican spirits, it does not mean we can relax. Whether it is a forecast using traditional national polling, or a forecast with state-level economic indicators, or a shaman viewing the entrails of a goat, the only thing that really matters is an enthusiastic GOTV turnout. We must take nothing for granted.
|District of Columbia||86.36|