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GOTV Efforts May Yield 20 Seat GOP Gain in the 2012 House Elections

Real Clear Politics Battle for the House is the brightest ray of sunshine a conservative Republican will find on their website. The RCP poll averages for President and US Senate contests are not as optimistic as for US House contests.

After the 2010 midterm elections, the GOP held 243 seats and the Dems held 192 seats. With a great GOTV effort the GOP can increase their majority to 263 seats. This accomplishment does not require that all the victories are defeats to an incumbent Dem. There are a number of new districts and districts where the seat became “open.” Below is a summary of RCP projections for the House.

  • 192 Safe GOP House seats
  • 18 Likely GOP House seats (includes 3 currently Dem seats and 1 open seat)
  • 16 Leans GOP House seats (includes 2 currently Dem seats)
  • 26 Toss Ups (include 7 Dem, 16 GOP, 1 open, and 2 incumbent vs incumbent seats)

With a terrific GOTV effort the GOP can win all of these contests for a total of 252 ( net gain of 9 seats). We get to a net gain of 20 by winning 11 of the 31 House contests that are currently projected by RCP as Leans Dem and Likely Dem. Of these 31 contests, there are 16 listed below that deserve extra attention. 9 of these 16 are in Arizona, Florida, New York, and Illinois. The other 7 are single contests in California, Connecticut, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. Look for the 11 wins to come from these 16 races listed below. The Republican candidate is always to the right of the Democrat.

Arizona

     

AZ-1  former Congressman  Ann Kirkpatrick vs former State Senator Jonathan Paton

     

AZ-2 Congressman Ron Barber vs Martha McSally

     

AZ-9 former State Senator  Kyrsten Sinema vs Paradise Valley Councilmember  Vernon Parker

Florida

     

 FL-9 former Congressman  Alan Grayson vs Todd Long

     
FL-22 former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel vs former state Representative  Adam Hasner
Illinois
     
IL-8  former Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs L. Tammy Duckworth  vs Congressman  Joe Walsh
     
IL-17 East Moline Alderwoman  Cheri Bustos  vs Congressman  Bobby Schilling
New York
     
NY-21 Congressman Bill Owens vs Matt Doheny
     
NY-24 former Congressman Dan Maffei  vs Congressman  Ann Marie Buerkle
California
     
CA-47 State Senator  Alan Lowenthal vs Long Beach City Councilman  Gary DeLong
Connecticut
     
CT-4 Congressman  Jim Himes vs Steve Obsitnik
Kentucky
     
KY-6 Congressman  Ben Chandler vs Andy Barr
Maryland
     
MD-6 John. Delaney  vs Congressman  Roscoe Bartlett, Jr.
Massachusetts
     
MA-6 Congressman  John Tierney  vs former State Senator Richard Tisei
Rhode Island
     
RI-1 Congressman  David Cicilline  vs State Police Superintendent Brendan Doherty
West Virginia
      
WV-3 Congressman Nick Rahall vs State Delegate Rick Snuffer
pilgrim
I am retired after 36 years of being a state of Indiana employee. I enjoy writing and reading conservative blogs.

7 COMMENTS

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7 COMMENTS

    • You’re correct. Lady P about the constituency of Debbie two last names and San Fran Nan. I do have on the list Alan Grayson and Dan Maffei who were both extremely awful during their previous stints in the House.

  1. Not the least of the evils of Democrat redistricting is the fact that there is no way to accurately model turnout. Example: The IL dems drew a district for Duckworth. Uh, what are the chances Walsh will do well in that scenario? I think it will take a Republican tidal wave. We shall see. Drove thru my daughter’s neighborhood & D’s have papered it with state senate lawn signs. Tricky Buzzards made their signs green. Looks like it’s St Patrick’s Day. Ugh!

  2. With a Repub tide that is likely to rise as high as this one, every tossup may already be ours, just like you intimate. And I agree – the battleground seats (just like the battleground states in the presidential election) are going to be the ones they list as leaning Dem and likely Dem. Kudos all around, Pil. GOTV, GOTV GOTV. We have to play every down like we want it more than the other team does.

    • You’re correct. Lady P about the constituency of Debbie two last names and San Fran Nan. I do have on the list Alan Grayson and Dan Maffei who were both extremely awful during their previous stints in the House.

  1. Not the least of the evils of Democrat redistricting is the fact that there is no way to accurately model turnout. Example: The IL dems drew a district for Duckworth. Uh, what are the chances Walsh will do well in that scenario? I think it will take a Republican tidal wave. We shall see. Drove thru my daughter’s neighborhood & D’s have papered it with state senate lawn signs. Tricky Buzzards made their signs green. Looks like it’s St Patrick’s Day. Ugh!

  2. With a Repub tide that is likely to rise as high as this one, every tossup may already be ours, just like you intimate. And I agree – the battleground seats (just like the battleground states in the presidential election) are going to be the ones they list as leaning Dem and likely Dem. Kudos all around, Pil. GOTV, GOTV GOTV. We have to play every down like we want it more than the other team does.

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