Real Clear Politics Battle for the House is the brightest ray of sunshine a conservative Republican will find on their website. The RCP poll averages for President and US Senate contests are not as optimistic as for US House contests.
After the 2010 midterm elections, the GOP held 243 seats and the Dems held 192 seats. With a great GOTV effort the GOP can increase their majority to 263 seats. This accomplishment does not require that all the victories are defeats to an incumbent Dem. There are a number of new districts and districts where the seat became “open.” Below is a summary of RCP projections for the House.
- 192 Safe GOP House seats
- 18 Likely GOP House seats (includes 3 currently Dem seats and 1 open seat)
- 16 Leans GOP House seats (includes 2 currently Dem seats)
- 26 Toss Ups (include 7 Dem, 16 GOP, 1 open, and 2 incumbent vs incumbent seats)
With a terrific GOTV effort the GOP can win all of these contests for a total of 252 ( net gain of 9 seats). We get to a net gain of 20 by winning 11 of the 31 House contests that are currently projected by RCP as Leans Dem and Likely Dem. Of these 31 contests, there are 16 listed below that deserve extra attention. 9 of these 16 are in Arizona, Florida, New York, and Illinois. The other 7 are single contests in California, Connecticut, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. Look for the 11 wins to come from these 16 races listed below. The Republican candidate is always to the right of the Democrat.
AZ-1 former Congressman Ann Kirkpatrick vs former State Senator Jonathan Paton
AZ-2 Congressman Ron Barber vs Martha McSally
AZ-9 former State Senator Kyrsten Sinema vs Paradise Valley Councilmember Vernon Parker
FL-9 former Congressman Alan Grayson vs Todd Long
WV-3 Congressman Nick Rahall vs State Delegate Rick Snuffer