The October Surprise – It may not be what you think.


Author’s note:  This article is meant as a seconding statement, with perhaps a twist,  to the concerns brought to us yesterday by our Southern friend, Kenny Solomon, and posted here.


Most observers these days opine that an attack on Iran by Israel is a foregone conclusion; it is now just a matter of strategic and political timing.  No one in the Western World is pretending anymore that Iran is not rushing headlong to produce nuclear weapons.  At some point diplomats and politicians of all stripes will begin to take Iran at their word that they are hell-bent on destroying Israel.

Somewhat traditional in American politics is for the administration in power, when faced with the possibility of not being re-elected on their merits, to concoct some venture, plot or ploy to paint themselves as still relevant, or still a force, or still looking out for the good old USA.  This is the famous “October surprise.”  Some have believed that Obama, by his inaction in the face of this evil intent by Iran, could be presumed not to have Israel’s interests at heart. OTOH, when it comes down to the final days of the campaign season, and the polling data is against him, he might give Israel the green light to go after Iran’s nuclear facilities in hopes of regaining whatever advantage his party has had in the American Jewish community and somehow rekindle the ‘gutsy call’ meme of the Osama bin Laden kill.

Recent reports, on the other hand, seem to indicate Obama is trying to have his cake and eat it too by doing everything to forestall an Israeli attack while at the same time despicably and traitorously letting the Iranians know that the US will not, repeat not, back the Israelis if the Israelis do strike. So, if the Irani will please, pretty please not attack our assets in the region?

The United States has indirectly informed Iran, via two European nations, that it would not back an Israeli strike against the country’s nuclear facilities, as long as Tehran refrains from attacking American interests in the Persian Gulf, Yedioth Ahronoth reported Monday.


According to the report, Washington used covert back-channels in Europe to clarify that the US does not intend to back Israel in a strike that may spark a regional conflict.

If these reports are true, they put a huge spotlight on the administration’s desire to abandon Israel  and to ingratiate themselves with the world-wide Islamofascist movement. Sunni, Shia, Wahabbi – whatever sect or faction of Islam, their common goal is the end of the State of Israel, however that might come about. By telling Iran the US will do absolutely nothing to assist Israel if they act, even, apparently, if it would happen to go badly for Israel,  Obama is finally giving the lie to his feigned, disingenuous assurances in recent times that Israel was a friend forever.  He didn’t want the 1967 borders anymore than the Arabs want the 1967 borders.  They want no State of Israel.

If there are indeed back-channel communications going on with the Iranians which contain even a hint of the substance these new revelations assert, it should be grounds for immediate and pointed Congressional inquiry.  You do not tell the enemy of a friend that you will do nothing to assist your friend.  You do not do that unless you intend to stab your supposed ‘friend’ in the back.

Which brings us to a possibility even more sinister than the administration trying to walk a fine line between Israel and Iran until the US elections are over.  The spectre arises of an even more evil Barack Obama than we had imagined doing a 180 and instead of giving Israel the green light, actually giving Iran the green light to attack Israel, with whatever resources, conventional or otherwise, they may have at their disposal, prior to the election.

Granted this may seem quite a stretch, even for Obama, or whoever is directing him, but here is how it could be stage managed:  A pre-emptive strike by Iran, meant by them to foil Israel’s capability to strike at their nuclear facilities, while killing as many Jews as possible, could be egged on by a ruse.  That ruse could be some sort of reverse Gulf of Tonkin incident where supposedly the Israelis were on their way to Tehran (a falsehood) and the US, according to their agreement with the Mullahs, not only did nothing to assist Israel in this (even though it wasn’t really happening), but did nothing to thwart the Iranian “response”.

Once the Iranians attack Israel, then, Obama is free to play his hand…..or not. If he sees some sort of minor gambit appearing to be opposed to the Iranian action as getting him the necessary point or two in the popular vote, then he might lob some cruise missiles around, but the Islamists needn’t sweat the small stuff.   Even if some in Tehran see an Obama double-cross, they will have a friend in the White House for four more gloriously productive (for the Caliphate creators), years.  Depending on what the Israelis ultimately accomplish in setting Tehran back on its hind quarters, the Mullahs can easily abide some public perception of Obama ‘coming to the aid of Israel’ because they know there will be plenty of opportunities to take care of that little chore (the Israel question) when Obama has more…flexibility.  And they know one sure thing, the same as all of us know it: whatever measures Obama would take would be as limited as possible and him taking out Iran’s nuclear capability himself is not in the cards.  He wouldn’t even do that for the Saudis.

But on the other hand, if it looks like The Big O is going down in flames on November 6, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the retreats from Iraq and Afghanistan he has authored will seem leisurely compared to how fast he withdraws our forces from the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, leaving the Jews to their fate.  Yes, that old ‘washing one’s hands of the problem’ originated right there in the Holy Land, as we recall.

Israel’s trump card to all of this is of course the fact that, just as everyone knows Tehran is trying to construct nuclear weapons, everyone knows that Israel already has them.  Were we Bibi and Company, and we knew Obama’s assurances to Tehran were a fact, we would be knocking on Mitt Romney’s back door at this very moment.  It is clearly now time for some back-channel communications on the part of the Netanyahu-Romney axis to war-game the Obama administration’s possible October surprise.   Besides having nuclear capabilities, as both a deterrent and a corrective capability, the Israelis have formidable conventional military might. But they are still surrounded, even after defeating the Arab hordes in every conflict since 1948.  We fervently hope that Romney is able to walk and chew gum at the same time and is getting his ducks in a row to manage a Mid-East crisis that we fear will dwarf anything seen in the region since Israel became a state.

All of the domestic agenda he may sincerely be desirous of implementing may fall flat in the face of a full-scale war in the Middle East.   But instead of having months to prepare for that eventuality, the Romney team may have only weeks because Obama may be accelerating the timetable.  He, and the Islamofascist genocidal maniacs, must be stopped, one way or another.



h/t: K. Solomon at Israel Survival Updates

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vassar bushmills
September 4, 2012 6:33 am

Interesting analysis, Bob. Israel’s intel in the region is better than our own, and once they know the Iranians have the physical capability to preemptively strike, all other bets are off. Their distrust of the Obamaistas is even deeper than my own, but they do trust individuals, and being wise, I’m sure the Obama camp doesn;t know who they are so they can remove them from the field of play. I’d bet they’re war gaming this in Washington now, only maybe Leon the Snitch Panetta won’t know it. As always, our prayers are with the people of israel and the… Read more »

September 4, 2012 9:04 am

There is no doubt in my mind about Obama’s antipathy towards Israel. After seeing 2016 yesterday, it is clear Obama is an Islamist sympathizer and his “incompetent” foreign policy actions these past 3 1/2 yrs. fit some of the points you’ve raised.

September 4, 2012 2:27 pm

I’ve read some interesting things on how Israel may attack Iran. They could lob a few nukes on the ground but a lot of people would die. So instead one theory is instead they lob a nuke high enough in the air to just create an EMP blast that would take out all their electronics. I’ve read that Israel has been EMP-proofing their essential electronics for a possibility they may decide to blast it high enough to take out the electronics of the entire Middle East, including themselves. That would disable fighter jets of the entire Arabian peninsula. When we… Read more »

Hillbilly Politics
September 13, 2012 9:40 am

Always think of Obama as not an American, regardless of his birth certificate or the fact that he’s president. He is not American because he doesn’t understand the country into which he was born, even as he acknowledges that ‘he wouldn’t be possible’ in any other country. However, there are others who wouldn’t have what they have and they don’t claim to be American at all. Instead, they take what America has to offer, then go home and use it against us or some other place they hate in the deepest corners of their souls. Having gotten what one has… Read more »