Cold Warrior has recently worked out an excellent GOTV plan, and every conservative Republican needs to apply this plan. This is especially true where Republicans outnumber Democrats. It’s galling to see in the past Democrats getting elected in Republican states. As a result of the 2010 numbers, eight states will gain House seats in the 2012 elections, led by Texas’ four seats and Florida, which gained two. Others gaining a single House seat were Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. Washington is the only solid Democrat state to gain a House seat. Texans and Utahans need to do the work Cold warrior has done in AZ-9 in TX-35 and UT-4. We can elect conservative Republicans instead of watching Lloyd Doggett and Jim Matheson get reelected if we we organize an effective GOTV effort.
In May Sean Tende wrote an article that destroys the meme that Democrats have built a “blue wall” that guarantees them victory. Democrats put out this meme of lies and deceit to depress and discourage Republicans. Below is an excerpt.
What we can do is control for any “national effects” by looking at the states’ Partisan Voting Index, or PVI, over the past few elections (I’ve chosen 1980 through 2008 in order to capture trends that started pre-1992).
As a refresher, PVI tells us how a state votes compared to the country as a whole. In other words, Reagan won Massachusetts with 51 percent of the vote in 1984. Someone unfamiliar with American politics might therefore have labeled Massachusetts a swing state. But of course, Reagan was winning nationally with 59 percent of the vote that year, in large part due to some very favorable tailwinds for the GOP. If we instead look at Reagan’s showing in Massachusetts relative to his national results, we see that the state actually had an eight-point Democratic lean.
So if Brownstein is right, and what we’ve seen in these states are demographic and coalitional forces pushing them out of the GOP’s grasp, we should see their PVIs drift toward the Democrats over the past 30 years or so. Specifically, we should expect to see a bunch of states that resemble Vermont, which clearly has realigned toward the Democrats, independent of any national forces, mostly since 1988.
Most of New England shows similar movement. Of course, there are some countervailing states that have become part of a Republican “Big Red Wall” and have moved out of the Democrats’ grip, such as Texas:
On the other hand, we do see a number of critically important states with more-or-less constant PVIs. These are where national forces seem to be doing much of the work. For example, that quintessential swing state, Ohio:
If anything, Wisconsin and Minnesota have actually trended toward the GOP over the past eight cycles when controlling for national effects; the trend in Minnesota is particularly pronounced. Given recent polling showing Romney and Obama closely matched in the Badger State, it would be foolish to suggest these states might not be put in play by Romney.
We see a similar trend in Iowa, which is only technically excluded from the Blue Wall by virtue of Bush’s narrow 2004 victory. In 1984 and 1988 it had a significant Democratic lean, but since then it has been within a point or so of the national vote total.
While the graphic shows that Iowa’s PVI is not a positive value for Republicans, the 3rd congressional district that pits incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell against incumbent Republican Tom Latham is where a majority of Republicans live and, with proper GOTV organization, should elect the Republican.
West Virginia does have a spectacular trend toward Republican that is mostly fueled by one major industry – COAL. This is having a positive effect for Republicans in the neighboring states of Ohio, Kentucky, and Virginia. It also matters to North Carolina customers of electricity from coal-fired power plants. This is why Nick Rahall (D WV-3), Ben Chandler (D-KY-6), and Mike McIntire (D-NC-7) can and should be defeated.
There are five incumbent Democrat senators in Republican states, and three Republicans running for open seats in Republicans states occupied by a Democrat senator that can and should be won by the Republican nominee. We need to do what Cold Warrior has planned out. The number of states that Democrats do not have a PVI advantage is 28, and this accounts for 275 electoral votes (5 more tha the 270 needed to win.) We can and should win more than 275 because PVI is not a fixed number, and some of the states Democrats currently enjoy a PVI advantage are trending Republican.
Don’t just sit in front of your computer all a twitter with despair or joy about the latest on what others are saying and doing. Get on your feet and walk neighborhoods to visit Cold warrior’s VINOs and nudge them into voting for Republicans. This election is the most important one in our lifetime. We not only need to defeat Obama, but we also need to defeat Democrats in the Senate and House to box Romney in to following through on conservative measures.
- Nebraska R+13 Deb Fischer (open seat)
- North Dakota R+10 Rick Berg (open seat)
- West Virginia R+8 Joe Manchin vs John Raese
- Montana R+7 Jon Tester vs Dennis Rehberg
- Missouri R+3 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin
- Florida R+2 Bill Nelson vs Connie Mack
- Virginia R+2 George Allen (open seat)
- Ohio R+1 Sherrod Brown vs Josh Mandel
- NC-7 R+11 Mike McIntire vs David Rouzer
- UT-4 R+10 Jim Matheson vs Mia Love
- KY-6 R+9 Ben Chandler vs Andy Barr
- WV-3 R+6 Nick Rahall vs Rick Snuffer
- TX-35 R+1 Lloyd Doggett vs Susan Narvais
- IA-3 R+1 Leonard Boswell vs Tom Latham