Saturday, September 18, 2021
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For those who can’t see the blowout coming

It’s going to be big. This November’s Republican blowout is going to be from top to bottom, the presidency, the Senate, the House, governor elections, state legislatures, mayors, city council, dog catchers. Tattoo it on your wife’s butt. I recommend “It’s a Big One!!!!” I believe that would play very well….

Barone, Luntz, and many other scholars are searching diligently for a template from a previous election to apply to this coming November. They crunch numbers endlessly, and pore over state-by-state polling, June-to-October shifts, demographics, voting blocs, and assorted triviata. The very bold ones point to 1980, but do so guardedly, because they fear to commit to what they see. The model is actually right in front of them, staring them in the face. It is 2010.

The model I personally believe is the Little Big Horn. I believe it will be that big, that thorough.

But here I write for you, the concerned conservative. For those of you saying “I hope you are right about this Little Big Horn prediction, EPU,” I don’t understand why it is not perfectly obvious. Exactly what don’t you see?

I see the other side, the negative side too. I see the relentless media attack machine (who got their butt kicked in 2010). I see all the efforts devoted to discouraging the right from even voting (didn’t work in 2010, and yes, they tried it big time). I see the massive ballot fraud (not enough in 2010 now, was it, although it got them NV and WA Senate seats). I see that the party takeover by conservatives is not proceeding as it should. I see our own side shooting at conservatives as always. I see an appalling lack of organization on our side. As always.

But I ask you this. What were the voters mad about in 2010? When we sent 80 new House members and 10 new senators, did it change things for the better? Do you honestly, seriously think voters are appeased, much less satisfied, by the Boehner Doctrine of “we took the best deal we could get”? Or do you perhaps think that voters are more savvy, more angry, and more confident in their newfound power to win elections and upgrade safe seats?

I see that political junkies like us get discouraged because the rank and file voters can’t keep their heads in the game 24×365 like we do. But let me tell you something. The rage they feel is burning white hot, and they know exactly how they are going to vote. I see it in conversations almost daily, and as a rule I am not trying to proselytize my friends and acquaintances.

They don’t read the blogs or watch FNC, they don’t protest the OWS crap or the latest DOJ outrage. They may not know the details about every Commie czar, or what outrageous thing the NLRB or the EPA did today. Not in chapter and verse.

But they know. How many people turned out to vote for Scott Walker in an UNCONTESTED primary last week? Did you see Captain Squish Lugar get wiped out by a conservative unknown? West Virginia fielded a Democrat primary competitor against Obama who was in federal prison. He got 41% of the vote.

Are you going to tell me that all these are outliers, or are you going to start believing what your eyes tell you?

You see, nothing has changed in 18 months. Except there’s MORE. More Obamanista criminal enterprises, more bad economy, more bad handling of Iraq and Afghanistan, more silly media attempts to explain away the perfectly obvious, more weak GOP leadership, more establishment Republicans losing primaries to conservatives, more, more, more. November 2010 was not a high water mark. It was not the end of the pendulum swing. It was a warm up boxing match in which a young, disorganized, inexperienced tea party movement punched the daylights out of the powerful, entrenched Democrat majority. This is only heading in one direction.

I don’t think this is seeing the glass half full. I think this is as certain as falling out of a boat on a lake, and hitting water. And I don’t see why you don’t get that. Unless you do.

Pic Credit: FreedomFilmDistributors.com

E Pluribus Unum
The weapons had evolved, but our orders remained the same: Hunt them down and kill them off, one by one. A most successful campaign. Perhaps too successful. For those like me, a Death Dealer, this signaled the end of an era. Like the weapons of the previous century, we, too, would become obsolete. Pity, because I lived for it.

11 COMMENTS

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11 COMMENTS

  1. You’re right, 2010 was not the high water mark, the tide has been turning since the day after election day 08. It was NJ and VA in 09, it was 2010 across the country, it was VA again in 2011 where Republicans took control of both houses, it was Turner in Weiner’s district in NY, it was the taking down of Weiner, it’s what’s going on in Wisconsin right now, it’s what happened in NC last Tuesday, it’s what happened in Indiana last Tuesday, and those are just some of the points of evidence that show we are at a different place than we were Nov. 1, 2008. The trend and trajectory are in our direction, why should we think we’ll not succeed?

    And as you pointed out, all the revelations about Obama, his administration, and the Leftist Democrats surrounding us, all of this becomes part of a new template.

  2. If the definition of a blowout is like 1984 where the most Obama captures is 13 EVs, then that means the GOP wins every state that has more than 13 EVs. There are 11 states with more than 13 EVs
    California
    Texas
    Florida
    New York
    Illinois
    Pennsylvania
    Ohio
    Michigan
    Georgia
    North Carolina
    New Jersey

    Those 11 states add up to a winning 270 EV count, and I’d love to see it. I just don’t think Obama can lose in all eleven of them. I’ll be very happy with the GOP winning 8 of these 11 states.

    • LOL perhaps I was not shooting high enough. I figure the popular vote is 56-42, and the EV is along the lines of 435-100. It would be very hard for Obama not to get CA, NY, and NJ. But I think he loses the other 8 on this list. Otherwise he gets HI, DC, DE, probably OR, maybe a couple other odds and ends.

  3. My internal final election win prediction was 55 to 45. Morris came out with the exact same prediction about a day later. I almost stopped believing my prediction then, but since then things have trended more and more and just as you’ve stated.

  4. I can’t call Ohio, it is just too close. But I am optimistic since Obama and Biden have and are, spending so much time here; they will jinx it for them. After seeing coal workers protesting here against Obama’s War on Coal it’s looking better and better.

    • Lady IO, I know what you mean. When you are close to the action, the noise of the media and the party leaders shouting is too loud to get a true perspective. The polls are relentlessly sampled left of where they should be (most by design, but Rasmussen out of fear of being the outlier I think).

      IMHO, Ohio will go for Romney at a minimum of 5 points (52-47). My personal prediction is 8 points. I believe that the burning anger of Joe Everyman does not show up in the news, in the polls, or in the calculations of all the (generally cowardly and craven) political advisers and operatives. They have already decided what they are going to do, and are just hunkering down, trying to survive until November.

  5. I am saying 61 to 39 and have been offering $100 bets to people I know, they refuse…LOL! the bottom line, in 06 and 08 you could feel the country turning sour and the media allowed the Democrats to lie about getting rid of the debt and spending like, well, Republicans used to. In 2010, after the million march in 09 in DC I knew it would be a blowout and I feel a tsunami coming in my soul that I haven’t felt in my lifetime…..America is AWAKE!

  1. You’re right, 2010 was not the high water mark, the tide has been turning since the day after election day 08. It was NJ and VA in 09, it was 2010 across the country, it was VA again in 2011 where Republicans took control of both houses, it was Turner in Weiner’s district in NY, it was the taking down of Weiner, it’s what’s going on in Wisconsin right now, it’s what happened in NC last Tuesday, it’s what happened in Indiana last Tuesday, and those are just some of the points of evidence that show we are at a different place than we were Nov. 1, 2008. The trend and trajectory are in our direction, why should we think we’ll not succeed?

    And as you pointed out, all the revelations about Obama, his administration, and the Leftist Democrats surrounding us, all of this becomes part of a new template.

  2. If the definition of a blowout is like 1984 where the most Obama captures is 13 EVs, then that means the GOP wins every state that has more than 13 EVs. There are 11 states with more than 13 EVs
    California
    Texas
    Florida
    New York
    Illinois
    Pennsylvania
    Ohio
    Michigan
    Georgia
    North Carolina
    New Jersey

    Those 11 states add up to a winning 270 EV count, and I’d love to see it. I just don’t think Obama can lose in all eleven of them. I’ll be very happy with the GOP winning 8 of these 11 states.

    • LOL perhaps I was not shooting high enough. I figure the popular vote is 56-42, and the EV is along the lines of 435-100. It would be very hard for Obama not to get CA, NY, and NJ. But I think he loses the other 8 on this list. Otherwise he gets HI, DC, DE, probably OR, maybe a couple other odds and ends.

  3. My internal final election win prediction was 55 to 45. Morris came out with the exact same prediction about a day later. I almost stopped believing my prediction then, but since then things have trended more and more and just as you’ve stated.

  4. I can’t call Ohio, it is just too close. But I am optimistic since Obama and Biden have and are, spending so much time here; they will jinx it for them. After seeing coal workers protesting here against Obama’s War on Coal it’s looking better and better.

    • Lady IO, I know what you mean. When you are close to the action, the noise of the media and the party leaders shouting is too loud to get a true perspective. The polls are relentlessly sampled left of where they should be (most by design, but Rasmussen out of fear of being the outlier I think).

      IMHO, Ohio will go for Romney at a minimum of 5 points (52-47). My personal prediction is 8 points. I believe that the burning anger of Joe Everyman does not show up in the news, in the polls, or in the calculations of all the (generally cowardly and craven) political advisers and operatives. They have already decided what they are going to do, and are just hunkering down, trying to survive until November.

  5. I am saying 61 to 39 and have been offering $100 bets to people I know, they refuse…LOL! the bottom line, in 06 and 08 you could feel the country turning sour and the media allowed the Democrats to lie about getting rid of the debt and spending like, well, Republicans used to. In 2010, after the million march in 09 in DC I knew it would be a blowout and I feel a tsunami coming in my soul that I haven’t felt in my lifetime…..America is AWAKE!

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