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Four Scenarios for the 2012 Presidential Contest

In the next five months a lot of things may happen that have an impact on who wins the presidential contest. We’ve already seen biased analysis by political pundits with their own agenda of either striving for attention or scaring folks. I am not a political pundit, and the only reason I have for writing this piece is to provide a sane and reasonable perspective of the presidential contest. I do believe I am informed with respect to election trends recently and also over the last 20 years. First I will list the states that I believe Obama and Romney have from the start.

    Obama starts with 205 electoral votes

  1. DC
  2. California
  3. Colorado
  4. Connecticut
  5. Delaware
  6. Hawaii
  7. Illinois
  8. Maine
  9. Maryland
  10. Massachusetts
  11. Minnesota
  12. New Jersey
  13. New York
  14. Oregon
  15. Rhode Island
  16. Vermont
  17. Washinngton

    Romney starts with 209 electoral votes

  1. Alabama
  2. Alaska
  3. Arizona
  4. Arkansas
  5. Georgia
  6. Idaho
  7. Indiana
  8. Kansas
  9. Kentucky
  10. Louisiana
  11. Mississippi
  12. Montana
  13. Nebraska
  14. North Carolina
  15. North Dakota
  16. Oklahoma
  17. South Carolina
  18. South Dakota
  19. Tennessee
  20. Texas
  21. Utah
  22. Virginia
  23. West Virginia
  24. Wyoming

    Romney needs 61 and Obama needs 65 of these 124 electoral votes

  1. Florida
  2. Iowa
  3. Michigan
  4. Missouri
  5. Nevada
  6. New Hampshire
  7. New Mexico
  8. Ohio
  9. Pennsylvania
  10. Wisconsin

Scenario 1

    Romney gets the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win by winning these additional states

  1. Florida
  2. Missouri
  3. New Hampshire
  4. Ohio

Scenario 2

    Obama gets the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win by winning these additional states

  1. Florida
  2. Michigan
  3. Nevada
  4. New Hampshire
  5. Wisconsin

Scenario 3

    It’s a 269-269 tie if Romney only wins these additional states

  1. Florida
  2. Iowa
  3. Missouri
  4. New Mexico
  5. Wisconsin

Scenario 4

    Romney wins in 1980 Reagan-like fashion if Obama only wins in these states

  1. DC
  2. California
  3. Delaware
  4. Hawaii
  5. Illinois
  6. Maryland
  7. Oregon
  8. Rhode Island
  9. Vermont

God only knows what will be the final outcome of the 2012 presidential contest. I hope my assumptions about the District of Columbia and 16 states for Obama and the 24 states for Romney are not considered far-fetched. I also hope my assumption regarding the 10 toss-up states is fair. The states in Obama’s column have voted m more than 50% of the time in the last 20 years for the Democrat nominee for president. Included in the Romney column are the three states that in 2008 Obama received just over 50% of the vote – Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. Missouri is the only one of the 10 toss-up states where Obama received slightly under 50% of the vote, and over the last 20 years Missouri has voted just over 50% of the time for the Democrat nominee.

pilgrim
I am retired after 36 years of being a state of Indiana employee. I enjoy writing and reading conservative blogs.

6 COMMENTS

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6 COMMENTS

  1. Pil’, awesome work man. Am I wrong to have some hope for Colorado to cast a sane vote? Missouri seems very safe to me. Can’t see Florida going for Obama. Gotta think we have a chance in Wisconsin and that we ought to win Ohio. What’s up with Pennsylvania…Hell, that Obama could win one state given his economic record blows my mind. God help us.

    But man, talk about doing the math. I am in awe of your work bro.

    • Thanks GC. I’ll bet you love scenario 4 over the other scenarios. Colorado really took it on the chin in 2010 electing a Democrat Governor, a Democrat Senator, and reelecting some knucklehead Democrats to the House. You’re not wrong to have some hope they will make amends in 2012. It’s amazing how so many folks have less money in their wallet, and they can’t seem to make the connection as to why is that.

  2. That’s some nice analysis, Pil. I lean toward “not quite Scenario 4, but a pretty good blowout nonethless”. Oftentimes I think the pundits get lost in the weeds by concentrating too much on state-by-state (how can Romney possibly win PA, or What can Obama do that will keep NV and CO from getting away, etc, etc).
    .
    There is certainly value in that, and I think to some extent you must look at each state and ponder the tangibles, study the history, and examine current levels of unemployment, recent state elections, and so on. But where the pundits get lost is in the big tide, the big narrative.
    .
    Just like in 2010, it’s the big story that may overwhelm all the particulars. The 11% unemployment, Obamacare, the continuing and accelerating power grabs by the Obamanistas, the shrillness and incoherence of the Democrat narrative (which is easily and simply overpowered by the “freedom” and “prosperity” narrative from the right).
    .
    I think you can line the states up (plus DC), list them from 1 to 51 in their propensity to vote Dem or Repub in this election. There would be some ties or fuzzy distinctions in a couple of spots. But the big question is where the dividing mark falls. I guarantee it will not be between 25 and 26 this year.
    .
    We don’t have to worry about what Romney can do to win PA for example, as a separate discussion from MI and OH. PA is to the right of MI. OH is to the right of PA. If he wins MI, then he would have already won PA and OH. NC and VA are both to the right of that. NV is probably to the left of PA, and NM slightly left of that, then IA, then MN and MI. (I am leaving many out, just making a point).
    .
    I think that’s what you’re doing here. I’m just posing it another way. My opinion is, like #4 suggests, I don’t think Obama can even hold his base 205.

    • You got it exactly right on what I am doing. I did rely hugely on the data gathered by a real political scientist, Larry Sabato. His column includes a table of DC and the 50 states ranked in the order from most likely to vote Democrat to least likely. Obviously DC is #1 and Utah is #51 for the past 20 years. While the table has Michigan at #14 and Colorado at #25, I chose Michigan as the toss-up because the 2010 results for the GOP in Michigan were better than in Colorado. I also disagreed with Sabato about Virginia being a toss-up state in 2012, and I have three more toss-ups than Sabato has (WI, NM, PA) because the results of the 2010 elections in those three states were great for the GOP.

      https://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/plan-of-attack-obama-romney-and-the-electoral-college/

      • Voter turn out is going to be key, possibly more so for Obama and the Dems. All I have to support my theory is anecdotal evidence but Obama’s voting base, the bought and paid for entitlement voters are fed up with him. Sure ACORN, or whatever they’re called now-a-days, can buy some votes with cigarettes and a couple of 40’s but even then the slaves on the democrat plantation are going to have the same look on their faces as they enter the polls as I did pulling the lever for Johnny McLame.

  1. Pil’, awesome work man. Am I wrong to have some hope for Colorado to cast a sane vote? Missouri seems very safe to me. Can’t see Florida going for Obama. Gotta think we have a chance in Wisconsin and that we ought to win Ohio. What’s up with Pennsylvania…Hell, that Obama could win one state given his economic record blows my mind. God help us.

    But man, talk about doing the math. I am in awe of your work bro.

    • Thanks GC. I’ll bet you love scenario 4 over the other scenarios. Colorado really took it on the chin in 2010 electing a Democrat Governor, a Democrat Senator, and reelecting some knucklehead Democrats to the House. You’re not wrong to have some hope they will make amends in 2012. It’s amazing how so many folks have less money in their wallet, and they can’t seem to make the connection as to why is that.

  2. That’s some nice analysis, Pil. I lean toward “not quite Scenario 4, but a pretty good blowout nonethless”. Oftentimes I think the pundits get lost in the weeds by concentrating too much on state-by-state (how can Romney possibly win PA, or What can Obama do that will keep NV and CO from getting away, etc, etc).
    .
    There is certainly value in that, and I think to some extent you must look at each state and ponder the tangibles, study the history, and examine current levels of unemployment, recent state elections, and so on. But where the pundits get lost is in the big tide, the big narrative.
    .
    Just like in 2010, it’s the big story that may overwhelm all the particulars. The 11% unemployment, Obamacare, the continuing and accelerating power grabs by the Obamanistas, the shrillness and incoherence of the Democrat narrative (which is easily and simply overpowered by the “freedom” and “prosperity” narrative from the right).
    .
    I think you can line the states up (plus DC), list them from 1 to 51 in their propensity to vote Dem or Repub in this election. There would be some ties or fuzzy distinctions in a couple of spots. But the big question is where the dividing mark falls. I guarantee it will not be between 25 and 26 this year.
    .
    We don’t have to worry about what Romney can do to win PA for example, as a separate discussion from MI and OH. PA is to the right of MI. OH is to the right of PA. If he wins MI, then he would have already won PA and OH. NC and VA are both to the right of that. NV is probably to the left of PA, and NM slightly left of that, then IA, then MN and MI. (I am leaving many out, just making a point).
    .
    I think that’s what you’re doing here. I’m just posing it another way. My opinion is, like #4 suggests, I don’t think Obama can even hold his base 205.

    • You got it exactly right on what I am doing. I did rely hugely on the data gathered by a real political scientist, Larry Sabato. His column includes a table of DC and the 50 states ranked in the order from most likely to vote Democrat to least likely. Obviously DC is #1 and Utah is #51 for the past 20 years. While the table has Michigan at #14 and Colorado at #25, I chose Michigan as the toss-up because the 2010 results for the GOP in Michigan were better than in Colorado. I also disagreed with Sabato about Virginia being a toss-up state in 2012, and I have three more toss-ups than Sabato has (WI, NM, PA) because the results of the 2010 elections in those three states were great for the GOP.

      https://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/plan-of-attack-obama-romney-and-the-electoral-college/

      • Voter turn out is going to be key, possibly more so for Obama and the Dems. All I have to support my theory is anecdotal evidence but Obama’s voting base, the bought and paid for entitlement voters are fed up with him. Sure ACORN, or whatever they’re called now-a-days, can buy some votes with cigarettes and a couple of 40’s but even then the slaves on the democrat plantation are going to have the same look on their faces as they enter the polls as I did pulling the lever for Johnny McLame.

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