The other night at the Reagan Library, Mark Levin said something along the lines of, “Are we really going to surrender our country to this crowd of statists?!” Of course, at a cocktail party near Georgetown a statist might say something along the lines of, “Are we really going to surrender our country to this crowd of hicks and hayseeds?!” These polar opposite perspectives are not new. This war has been going on from the very beginning. It is becoming clear to more and more people that the only way they will be able to make a difference is to become a PC in their local Republican Party. In the meantime, those cocktail partiers near Georgetown are just laughing about tea party emails, telephone calls, and blogs telling the rest of America the true state of affairs. Apparently the cocktail circuit folks don’t share the same concerns.
Every state primary is different, and some are run better than others. I like Arizona and Florida, but I would have liked them better if they had not moved their primary up and cost their state delegates, (29 for AZ and 49 for FL). I really like Delaware, New Jersey, and Utah. I like Montana and DC, but I would like them better if all of their delegates were pledged to a candidate. The states and federal district I have mentioned are the only ones with winner “takes all rule” for the primary contests. There are other states that award winner take all for each district, and this is akin to awarding losers. I prefer to see one winner in each contest, and a win is a win. The process of delegates who are pledged to no candidate seems a little too much like the elitists’ fears of a crowd of hicks and hayseeds taking over the party.
There are going to be 417 special unpledged delegates and 1,869 pledged delegates at the RNC convention in Tampa. Right now only 779 pledged delegates are spoken for. Romney has 408, Santorum has 187, Gingrich has 141, and Paul has 38. It’s mathematically impossible for Paul to get to the 1144 delegates needed to clinch even if he took all 1,090 available pledged. Gingrich would need 1,003 of the 1,090, Santorum would need 957 of the 1,090, and Romney would need 736 of the 1,090. The elitists are loving the very high likelihood that the 417 unpledged super delegates are who will decide the outcome. This disgusts me.
If all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the 5 federal territories were all operating by Utah’s rules how would it look for the candidates? It would improve things for Romney who would have 533 delegates and for Santorum who would have 360 delegates. Gingrich would have 40 less delegates, and Paul would have no delegates. For the contests going forward between Romney and Santorum it could come down to who wins California. If Santorum wins California he clinches the nomination with 1,152 delegates. If Romney wins California he clinches with 1,156 delegates.
The NCAA basketball tournament reminds me that the winner takes all. No rewards are given for leading during the game. That is why proportional delegate allocation is unappealing to me. I’m not stating preference for either primaries or caucuses, but I do like the winner take all aspect of the Montana caucus. Whether a primary is “open or closed” is an issue that must be addressed by state governments instead of the state’s political parties. When the primaries are held should be determined by the state vs political parties. No nominating process is perfect, but I still rue what might have been.
The results if everyone is using Utah’s rules