The Inevitable Inevitability of Inevitableness


Watching the coverage of the New Hampshire primary, I have noticed a strong trend among the pundit class. There seems to be a deep rooted belief that by winning Iowa and New Hampshire that Mitt Romney is automatically a lock to be the GOP nominee. Fortunately, this is just another attempt by the media to shape the news instead of just reporting it.

Winning the GOP nomination this year will require a candidate to reach 1,144 or more delegates. With Iowa and New Hampshire both in the rear view mirror, a total of 37 delegates have been awarded so far. With penalties for moving up primary dates and proportionate delegates being awarded, Mitt Romney finds himself in possession of 13 of those delegates already awarded. That is 1.1% of the total needed to clinch the nomination.

Of course, there is also the narrative that nobody has ever won South Carolina without winning one of the first two contests. I think back to the year 2004 when I watched my favorite baseball team, the Boston Red Sox, lose the first 3 games of the ALCS to the Yankees. The “smarter than us proles” talking heads all but wrote the Red Sox off, because nobody had ever come from being down 0-3 to win a seven game series. As a fan, I never stopped believing. The players obviously didn’t buy into the media spin, either, as the Red Sox came back to win the series, and went on to win their first World Series in 76 years.

Crowning Mitt Romney at this point in the race is akin to naming the person leading a marathon after the first 1/4 of a mile to be the winner. There is still plenty of time for a non-Romney candidate to surge to the lead. We can’t let the punditry lull us into complacency. This is our hill to die on, and this fight is far from over.

Crosposted at Kenny Says.

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Somewhere in Janet Napolitano's file cabinet, my name is on a watch list.

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January 11, 2012 10:39 am

I suggest we hang in there, lest we all be hung with another RINO.

I had a tweet not long ago from a insider Republican strategist in response to my distaste for being railroaded twoard the next guy in line. He tweeted back, where you gonna go?

To get a rope maybe or at least a good stout rail and some tar & feathers?

redneck hippie
January 11, 2012 11:01 am

Call me an optimist, but I don’t see the tea party taking this sitting down. South Carolina will have their say, of this I am sure. 2010 results have re-racked the billiard balls.

Live free or die.

January 11, 2012 12:36 pm

Thaanks, Kenny, for doing the reporting that the paid reporters won’t do.

Brian Hibbert
January 11, 2012 5:02 pm

I think you nailed it Kenny and I completely agree. We haven’t had any real primaries yet, only the caucus and the heavily Democrat attended N.H. primary. South Carolina will be the first real test in the race.

Queen Hotchibobo
January 12, 2012 1:55 pm

My contempt for the R party will grow by leaps and bounds unless they do something about starting our nomination process with 3 open primaries.

First in 2008 and now, the best candidates are struggling where the D’s and I’s get to choose our nominee. It’s time to change the process when we get stuck with nominees that the core of the R party considers with a bland Meh.

January 15, 2012 11:21 pm

Agreed MSM and RINO establishment has been trying to shape this process and give us the candidates they deign to allow us, since this all began. Then something happened in the last four weeks that I personally dont think even Soros had anything to do with although he and his minions are heartened. Four of our candidates & their bumbling campaign organizations self immolated, and two of those candidates completely withdrew from the race (Huntsman’s annoucement coming tomorrow) – even though they still had lots of cash in the cooler. What are we sons and daughers of thetea parties, supposed… Read more »