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Media study flavor of the week, missing Perry comeback

There is a pretty interesting dynamic happening as the Republican primary preseason draws to a close, and the Iowa caucus is now less than three weeks away. All summer and fall the media and the right-side pundits have acted as if there were only two candidates in the race: perennial bridesmaid Flipper Goodhair (Romney), and the latest conservative in first place. In order, they’ve been Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and now Gingrich.

This month’s version of pundit wisdom is that it’s a two-man race between Romney and Gingrich. Gingrich, for the first time under the bright light of scrutiny, has been wilting. Finally the GOP Establishment thinks they have their wish in that Romney has finally run out of those pesky “unelectable” conservative rivals.

The airwaves are filled with Romney and Gingrich, Gincrich and Romney, with occasionally some color with Bachmann, Santorum, and CrazyPants Ron Paul. They study their polls and graphs and demographics, yet they miss the astoundingly obvious. While Perry has been stellar in the last couple of debates and climbing in the polls — gently nationwide, but rather sharply in Iowa — it just seems nobody in the media want to talk about him at all. That is especially true in the “conservative” media.

And it’s funny to me. You see, Perry, sitting in 4th or 5th place nationally at 10%, has this thing won already. He had it won the day he announced. It’s not that I am endowed with special secret wisdom. The fundamentals are right there for everybody to see. I don’t think that scrubbing the discussion of Rick Perry from public discourse is any great media conspiracy, or the result of the GOP Elite trying to bury him out of fear that he might experience a resurgence. I just think they are idiots.

They believe that once knocked off the top perch, nobody can recover. All the conservatives except 1% Santorum have had a turn, so once Gingrich fades…….then what? Romney or Paul takes over? They think so, and that reveals their galactic stupidity.

Iowa is going to be a horrific shock….
….to the entire commie media and conservative media, and by extension the world. Perry will finish in the top 3 of Iowa with a minimum of 20%.

The right time….
They don’t GET the Tea Party movement. I don’t think anybody in Washington, New York, or Los Angeles does, or even could. The reins of power in the Republic are held by evil men. The reins of power in the Republican Party are held by small, self-serving people who have no vision for the country, and no great concern for conservative ideals, and no special concern for the cliff we are all about to go over if we don’t stop the Obamanistas. But the hearts and minds of the country now belong to the Tea party movement. Most people don’t even know it yet, but so it is.

The Tea Party movement was born out of desperation. Good, conservative people see the future and want no part of it. But that is not all. The Tea Party movement was also born out of patriotism, of love for freedom, family, and nation. Good, conservative people see a vision for what the country could be (again), and are willing at this point or very soon to throw off the chains. In its nascent effort in 2010, the Tea Party cast down the Democrats (and a few Republicans) in House, Senate, and a multitude of states. In some states (Wisconsin and Virginia come to mind), redemption is already underway. On the national scene, though, the Tea Party has been disappointed. But rather than give up, they just getting warmed up. They are going to choose the Republican nominee, and they are going to take over both party and Republic, all in 2012.

The right candidate….
The Tea Party will not willingly support Romney or Gingrich, and won’t touch Ron Paul. They will take a second look at the conservative alternatives. When they do, they’ll see that an outstanding governor with a super record and a serious and legitimate platform of reducing the reach of government had as his only problem a propensity for flat and gaffe prone debates, and even that seems to have been corrected.

Perry really messed up in the debates, and it cost him dearly. But given a second look, which is happening, he hasn’t messed up much else. The Perry thing is like gravity. You can float for awhile, you can fly. But in the end, all things come down. Perry is inevitability. Here’s why, in short:

  • He has massively deep pockets. That means he never need make desperate moves. He can last till Super Tuesday, no matter what. His message will be heard.
  • His resume is stellar: jobs, economy, energy independence, and business/hiring friendly environment. In this 2012 election season, those are all the top issues, and he is obviously qualified. He is obviously the most qualified.
  • While his early debate performances might indicate otherwise (he was recovering from back surgery) he is a sharp and productive retail politician. He does well all the little and big things that candidates do.
  • He is the Governor of Texas. By position and by inclination, Perry represents all that is anti-Washington. And if there was ever an election that was primed to tap into anti-Washington sentiment, it is this one.
  • Perry is inspiring in in person, in speeches, and in ads.
  • His conservative credentials are solid if not perfect, and he has never flip-flopped.
  • Nobody has any doubts whatsoever about what he would do as president: aggressively attack the deficit, give America a strong face internationally, go hard after terrorism, shed burdensome regulation, dramatically reduce the bureaucracy, and create a tremendously job-friendly environment.

Romney is steady but conservatives rightly do not trust him. Gingrich is brilliant but has notable off-the-conservative-ranch excursions. Paul is a fruitcake. Bachmann is magnetic and boldly conservative, but has little executive experience and few accomplishments. Santorum is bold and conservative, but will never be forgiven for endorsing Specter over Toomey in 2004. Huntsman is liked by people conservatives don’t trust. Perry is everything any conservative ever wanted, only he sometimes stumbles over words. As the race unfolds and people vote for keeps, gravity will take over.

The best part? It’s a Christmas surprise….
How is it that the elites, the pundits, and the pollsters don’t see it coming? It’s going to be funtastic. If there is a betting line on Iowa somewhere, a real gambling one, somebody PLEASE point it out to me. I want some of this action.

E Pluribus Unum
The weapons had evolved, but our orders remained the same: Hunt them down and kill them off, one by one. A most successful campaign. Perhaps too successful. For those like me, a Death Dealer, this signaled the end of an era. Like the weapons of the previous century, we, too, would become obsolete.

Pity, because I lived for it.
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About E Pluribus Unum

The weapons had evolved, but our orders remained the same: Hunt them down and kill them off, one by one. A most successful campaign. Perhaps too successful. For those like me, a Death Dealer, this signaled the end of an era. Like the weapons of the previous century, we, too, would become obsolete. Pity, because I lived for it.
View all posts by E Pluribus Unum →

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texasgalt
Editor

Perry is rising.

pilgrim
Editor

I think the polling for Ron Paul is as overblown as all those straw polls showing Paul at the top. Iowa is a state where only registered Republicans can participate in a Republican caucus. Some may argue that it’s so easy to become a registered Republican, but they don’t understand that those who have always been a Democrat just can’t become a Republican. Iowa Republicans are not going to embarrass and make themselves irrelevant in future presidential contests by voting for Ron Paul.

eburke
Editor

Excellent analysis, EPU. What the MFM can’t get through their heads is that conservatives will. not. ‘settle’ for Romney like they did for McCain in ’08. They will keep cycling through the conservatives in the race until they find one they like.

I think Perry’s problems occurred early enough in the race to allow him time to overcome them and from all indications from polling out of IA, he’s doing just that.

But the best line of your entire piece?

“Ron Paul is a fruitcake.”

Amen, brother!

castor
Member

We have an expression down here in the southern climes, ” From your mouth to God´s ears.”

vassarbushmills
Admin

We’re about to go into the idiot season, EP. I like your analysis, and think Perry may finish as high as #2, depending on how many Paul voters become embarrassed at the last minute and switch. If Paul were to win Iowa they stand a chance of making Iowa a laughing stock forever, their caucus hereinafter a freak side show.

As you say, the planets are moving into alignment.

beaglescout
Admin

The country club Republicans have been trying to get rid of those darn “unelectable” conservatives ever since they boxed Robert Taft out of the nomination and put Eisenhower in instead. They screwed Goldwater over, were convinced Reagan could never win, and followed Reagan up with their man, “Poppy” Bush. They followed up the big government Republican George W. Bush with John McCain, who really believed the media liked him… at least until he got the GOP nomination when they instantly turned on him, and the “most electable and most liberal” Republican suddenly became a war-mongering racist stupid crippled maniac who… Read more »

redneck hippie
Editor

Resistance is futile. Newton’s law operates in Iowa and everywhere else.

Lady Penguin
Admin

The reins of power in the Republican Party are held by small, self-serving people who have no vision for the country.

Profound, EPU, profound. You nailed this is so many ways, not just about Perry, but about the broader picture of what is wrong with our party.

Perry reminds me of a favorite short story from years ago. The one about the dark horse; quietly the person went about their business, unobtrusive, and then all of a sudden won the contest.

cactusjack
Member
cactusjack

I have been (not) watching the whole panoply of debates in disgust as they produce for us, with suspicious certainty,our two *top* candidates, a Washington Insider and a Northeastern Liberal Republican. As though Nov 2010 never happened. I hope and pray your analysis is correct EPU. Either Perry or Bachman, with their ties to the Tea Party, are the rightful heirs of the Nov 2010 Revolt, not Newt or Mitt. I have been thinking, also, the traditional American political system, in its wisdom, has some failsafes built into it for those times when the *people* and the *democratic process* run… Read more »

Queen Hotchibobo
Editor

Good post. I agree 100%.