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Handicapping the Horse Race 11-23-11

Yesterday’s debate sponsored by CNN, Heritage, and AEI may have an impact on Iowa and New Hampshire polling. The next debate is December 10th in Des Moines, Iowa. Diane Sawyer of ABC will be the moderator. The performance in these debates is not the only driving force behind the nomination process. All eight of the candidates can afford to attend these debates. The critical need is for candidates to win or place second in Iowa and New Hampshire. That achievement will get the money flowing into their campaigns so that they can afford the TV and radio buys that are needed to continue the quest. In my opinion, there are five of these eight candidates who need to win or place second in Iowa to continue. I am basing this opinion on their FEC money numbers.

Candidates who Win Place or Dropout

CANDIDATE NET RECEIPTS NET DISBURSEMENTS CASH ON HAND DEBT
SANTORUM 1,289,725 1,100,168 189,557 71,866
HUNTSMAN 4,514,189 4,186,574 327,615 3,145,594
GINGRICH 2,910,879 2,557,462 353,417 1,192,866
CAIN 5,380,841 4,047,063 1,333,779 675,000
BACHMANN 9,870,004 10,184,710 1,545,772 549,604

Candidates Soldiering On no matter what

CANDIDATE NET RECEIPTS NET DISBURSEMENTS CASH ON HAND DEBT
PERRY 17,200,232 2,121,817 15,078,415 566,796
ROMNEY 18,449,060 5,900,785 14,656,966 0
PAUL 12,787,448 9,112,679 3,674,768 0

Thursday, November 17, 2011
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers shows Gingrich with 32% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 19%. Georgia businessman Herman Cain, who led in Iowa last month, drops to third with 13% of the vote. Texas Congressman Ron Paul draws 10% of the vote in Iowa, while Texas Governor Rick Perry and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann each grab six percent (6%).

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum draws support from five percent (5%) of caucus-goers while former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman picks up two percent (2%). Only one percent (1%) would prefer some other candidate and six percent (6%) more are undecided.

New Hampshire Likely Republican Primary Voters
Ballot Tests Data and Analysis
November 22, 2011
The “governor next door,” Mitt Romney, rose to the top of a crowded field of Republican presidential hopefuls in New Hampshire, realizing 35% of the vote among likely GOP primary voters. One-fifth (20%) are “definitely” committed to voting for him in the upcoming primary. Newt Gingrich took 18% for a solid second place showing behind Romney, followed by Ron Paul at 10%. All other candidates were in single digits: Jon Huntsman (8%), Herman Cain (8%), Rick Perry (4%), Michele Bachmann (4%), Rick Santorum (2%) and Gary Johnson (<0.5%). One-in-ten were firmly undecided. When I look at both the FEC data and the polling data, Rick Santorum looks like the first candidate to drop out of the race. Bachmann would be the next one to drop, and Huntsman, the third. Newt Gingrich may be in a more difficult position than Herman Cain in terms of campaign debt and organization, and if he does not win or place second, then he is my fourth one to drop out. Cain can still afford to keep the campaign going after losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, but without some winning of delegates in the next few primaries he will not have the money to keep going. No one has yet closed the deal with the GOP conservatives, and the polling has already had a lot of swings. I expect more changes to happen with the polling in the next six weeks. If Santorum and Bachmann rise at the same time that Gingrich and Cain fall in Iowa, then that could be the end of the Gingrich candidacy. Likewise, it is also true if Huntsman rises at the same time that Gingrich falls in New Hampshire. The bottom line of my handicapping on this 23rd day of November 2011 is that I expect the four candidates still soldiering on, and appearing in the January 16th debate in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to be Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney. YMMV

pilgrim
I am retired after 36 years of being a state of Indiana employee. I enjoy writing and reading conservative blogs.

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2 COMMENTS

  1. If Ron Paul dropped out, where would those votes go? I worry about that because I think maybe they will go to no one.

    I hear Thune came out for Romney, today. Confirms what I felt about him. Other RINOs will be jumping aboard, no doubt.

  1. If Ron Paul dropped out, where would those votes go? I worry about that because I think maybe they will go to no one.

    I hear Thune came out for Romney, today. Confirms what I felt about him. Other RINOs will be jumping aboard, no doubt.

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