In a statement released this afternoon, Sarah Palin ended months of speculation and announced that after prayerful consideration and in consultation with her husband, Todd, she will not be be entering the race for the Presidency. Combined with Chris Christie’s announcement earlier this week that he will not enter the race, this means that for all intents and purposes what you see in the current GOP Presidential field is what you’re gonna get.
Before I launch into my analysis, let me state for the record that I am neither a Palin-bot nor a Palin-basher. She wasn’t my first choice for a variety of reasons (which are no longer important) but had she entered the race and won the nomination I would have worked my fingers to the bone for her. And FWIW, in my lifetime I have never witnessed anyone receive the kind of vile slander and vitriol which Sarah has endured since she was selected as McCain’s Vice-Presidential nominee. If the media had even an ounce of conscience (which they don’t) they’d be eternally ashamed of their thoroughly disgusting and unprofessional conduct.
So, where does this leave us?
From where I sit, Sarah, if she so chooses, can play kingmaker. She has a huge following which would march into Hell itself for her so if she chooses to endorse one of the current candidates, that will translate into a massive bump in support for said endorsed candidate.
The person I believe stands to benefit the most from a Sarah endorsement is Herman Cain (full disclosure: Herman is my top choice for the nomination and I’ve contributed to his campaign). Why? Because right now the biggest knock on Cain is all the folks who say “I love what he says but I don’t think he can win.” If Sarah were to come out and endorse Cain, combined with his recent poll numbers, he will be firmly cemented in the top tier.
Could I live with her endorsing Perry or Bachmann? Absolutely. But unless Bachmann regains some momentum, if Sarah’s looking for someone who shares her beliefs, and is the ‘most outsidest’, I think Cain most closely fits what Sarah’s has said she’s looking for in the race.
As one of my fellow editors has opined in the past (that would be EPU), I believe the GOP Presidential race will eventually come down to Mr. Establishment (that’s Romney) vs either the conservative with political experience (Perry) or the conservative ‘outsider’ with no political experience (Cain). Either way, I think that Sarah staying out just lessened Romney’s chances of winning because if Perry gets his feet under him, and/or Cain can withstand the media colonoscopy that he’s about to get, unlike in 2008, this time there won’t be multiple ‘conservative’ candidates splitting the votes which allowed the Establishment Elite candidate to walk through the middle. I absolutely believe that sooner rather than later this will end up being Romney vs Perry or Romney vs Cain. And in the mood the GOP primary electorate is in, Romney doesn’t have a prayer in a head-to-head match-up with a conservative.
Why? Because no matter who gets in, or who gets out, or who was thinking about getting in but decided not to, Mitt’s numbers can’t crack 25%. The only way I believe he can win this is if the 70-75% of the anti-Mitt vote splits itself, he wins a bunch of winner-take-all primaries with a low plurality of the vote and the aura of ‘inevitability’ sets in. With a Sarah endorsement, one of the conservatives will absolutely vault to the top thus lessening the chances that they all kind of moth around long enough for Romney to win this with a plurality of Republicans and a bunch of Democrats and Independents because we as a Party are too stupid to have only Republicans choose the Republican nominee (I know, I know…what a concept).
Bottom line is that I’m still Cain #1, Perry #2 with Bachmann at #3, and while I understand that each of them has things that might trouble a conservative, the bottom line is that all of them are a dang sight better than Romney, and a multitude of light years better than the President-in-training who currently inhabits the White House.
I just hope they focus their fire on Obama and and stop this penny-ante schoolyard personal sniping (and, just to be clear, that doesn’t preclude pointing out that RomneyCare is the father of ObamaCare; just stick to the policy and stay away from the personal. There’s no need to focus on Romney the person; as soon as primary voter’s are asked “do you believe that government at any level should be able to demand that a free people buy a certain product”, it’ll be “game over” for Mitt).
So Sarah…keep doing what you’ve been doing for the last two years: raising money for conservative candidates, inspiring the Base, putting all the far-left policies of the Obama regime into language the common person can understand, and, most of all, keep causing multiple head explosions on the Left everytime you open your mouth. And choose carefully, Sarah, to whom you direct your support because there are legions who will follow your lead.
So lead on, Sarah…lead on!