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HomePatriot DispatchesThe state of the Republican primary race 8-14-2011

The state of the Republican primary race 8-14-2011

The entry of Rick Perry coupled with Tim Pawlenty’s withdrawal from the primary race has certainly upended matters.

I’m reasonably comfortable with a Perry run as I don’t see any of the previously other declared candidates capable of beating Romney – the current group of Romney opponents is too fragmented in their support (both electorally and financially) to prevail against the establishment support and the impending juggernaut for Romney.

Pawlenty’s withdrawal says that low-key isn’t going to cut it this cycle. Cain and Bachman stir the heart, but Cain’s lack of governmental/executive experience (and Bachmann’s too) against an incumbent President is a huge negative. Obama only got away with it due to 2008 being an open race and plus a worshiping press. Gingrich is appalling and damaged goods; Santorum cannot carry independents, especially once the campaign videos come forward (e.g. “Man on dog”) – nor even carry his home state of PA.

Perry certainly has his flaws in terms of conservative credentials, but given that an Obama win will spell the end to representative democracy in our country, Perry represents an acceptable alternative – and he’s the best I see we’re going to be able to do this electoral cycle. Nobody more “conservative” than Perry currently running (or under speculation) can articulate the case for conservatism and – equally importantly – sell it to enough voters to win the electoral college.

A Romney nomination will totally demotivate the base and deliver the election to Obama. And if Romney decides on the 2008 playbook and tries to bribe the base with someone like Bachmann, his success will match that of McCain. I hope Bachmann is smart enough not to get into Palin’s 2008 shoes.

I’ve thought about a Perry/Bachmann ticket, but that would too close to a Bush/Palin ticket, which just can’t work given the media mugging that that has been going on. Perry will have a hard enough time with the Bush 2.0 image without picking Palin 2.0 as his running mate.

However, we have plenty of time to decide on VP, especially since we don’t know what will be crucial for 2012. Most today assume it will be the economy, but that may not be the case. If defense/foreign affairs become more prominent, for instance, someone like Allen West could be a serious possible.

(BTW I think Michelle brings more to the table than Sarah, but the media has already done enough demonizing as to make her a Palin 2.0 for the swing voters, and that will be a too heavy a load for Perry (or other nominee) to carry. Regrettable but unfortunately that’s reality.)

I do hope that Bachmann stays in the race to push the primary race fulcrum/conversation towards a more conservative point. Again, though, I don’t see a path to President or for VP for her. The media assassins in cahoots with the “feminists” will ensure that.

That’s where I stand at this point. But I am willing to be persuaded.

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I have adopted my screen name out of a passion to seek out and proclaim the truth, but to do so in a civil manner that permits genuine conversation in an era where mutual respect is rapidly becoming an endangered species. No guarantee I will live up to that all the time, though.

11 COMMENTS

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11 COMMENTS

  1. We are sure that you are acutely aware of the knock on your position – that being that letting “the media assassins and ” the fminists” give us a pool of candidates to choose from isn’t a very palatable notion, “reality” to the contrary notwithstanding.

    • I am with you Bob about not allowing for those media assassins to be part of any calculation on who will be selected for VP and especially for Pres. I am confident that Perry will not make any calculations on that basis. He already has said that we have got to stop trying to think we can win them over. Those media assassins have hated conservatives from Barry Goldwater to present day, and they always will hate us.

    • Mike,

      I have not been following Gov. Perry’s record in detail, especially his record regarding state issues, but over the past few months I have encountered a number of conservative commenters criticize him for what they view as certain policy decisions entailing governmental intervention and expansion of government’s role, which they would view as impeaching his claims to believe in smaller government and, by extension, conservatism.

      Our Texas commenters would be in a much better position than I to assess his record as governor

      The other criticisms that seem be raised relate to his views on immigration, but given the divisions among conservatives on this issue, there’s no way anyone who’s been governor of Texas could avoid criticism from some subgroup of conservatives. But from what I’ve read, his views do seem to fall within the spectrum of conservative positions.

      Certainly he evokes strong emotions among a fair number of conservatives, if my sample is valid.

      My personal interpretation – based primarily on the gardasil controversy of 2007 and my internal summation of what I’ve been reading – is that Rick Perry’s greatest flaw is what looks to be a history of cronyism, which has lead to number of missteps, rather than duplicity regarding the conservative philosophy he espouses.

      I would also note that I have some gut level of uneasiness based on the two glimpses I saw of Gov. Perry in two different contexts at last year’s (2010) RedState Gathering which were discordant – a real person with heartfelt convictions in the more private, “off-the-record: setting vs. his public speech the next day in which he came across as just another politician tailoring his message to the audience. Hopefully his campaign in the next few weeks will bring more resolution on that.

      • Thx for the extra effort CT, but it looks like I have more detail than you and that the only conservative credential issues were the innoculation program that he has now admitted was a mistake he would not repeat and his Texas Dream Act. I hope Perry supports a border fence before amnesty. If so, then he would seem to be 100% on the issues. I suspect Romney is the one with conservative credential issues and Bachmann’s problem is being loose with the facts and gaffes. more later

  2. I might add that Santorum also has an enemy in a fairly small but fiercely dedicated demographic — those who were cheering Toomey on in his 2004 primary race against the despicable Arlen Specter.

    For those who don’t know or don’t remember that race, Toomey lost to Specter by less than 2%. Specter was endorsed by both George W Bush and ……. Senator Rick Santorum.

    I pledged then never to forget, and never to forgive. Santorum has on a couple of occasions justified his vote. He’s never apologized or walked it back. In 2010, Toomey returned, after heading Club For Growth in the interim, to challenge Specter again. This time Specter changed parties to avoid the primary, but then he lost a Dem primary to Sestak, who Toomey beat in the general.

    Santorum rates for me right there with Ron Paul.

    • I totally agree with your comment (except your last sentence). I remember well that 2004 campaign and also pledged to not forget, which I have kept.

      This choosing of the Washington elite over conservative principles doomed Santorum’s reelection in 2006 and will continue to dog any effort of his to again seek elective office.

      But I am glad he at least has otherwise remained pro-life

    • I’m with you and it should also be remembered … the hit job Santorum did on Rand Paul when Santorum was hosting Friday’s on the Bill Bennett radio show. You see, Mitch’s Kentucky boy, Trey Grayson was “electable”.

  1. We are sure that you are acutely aware of the knock on your position – that being that letting “the media assassins and ” the fminists” give us a pool of candidates to choose from isn’t a very palatable notion, “reality” to the contrary notwithstanding.

    • I am with you Bob about not allowing for those media assassins to be part of any calculation on who will be selected for VP and especially for Pres. I am confident that Perry will not make any calculations on that basis. He already has said that we have got to stop trying to think we can win them over. Those media assassins have hated conservatives from Barry Goldwater to present day, and they always will hate us.

    • Mike,

      I have not been following Gov. Perry’s record in detail, especially his record regarding state issues, but over the past few months I have encountered a number of conservative commenters criticize him for what they view as certain policy decisions entailing governmental intervention and expansion of government’s role, which they would view as impeaching his claims to believe in smaller government and, by extension, conservatism.

      Our Texas commenters would be in a much better position than I to assess his record as governor

      The other criticisms that seem be raised relate to his views on immigration, but given the divisions among conservatives on this issue, there’s no way anyone who’s been governor of Texas could avoid criticism from some subgroup of conservatives. But from what I’ve read, his views do seem to fall within the spectrum of conservative positions.

      Certainly he evokes strong emotions among a fair number of conservatives, if my sample is valid.

      My personal interpretation – based primarily on the gardasil controversy of 2007 and my internal summation of what I’ve been reading – is that Rick Perry’s greatest flaw is what looks to be a history of cronyism, which has lead to number of missteps, rather than duplicity regarding the conservative philosophy he espouses.

      I would also note that I have some gut level of uneasiness based on the two glimpses I saw of Gov. Perry in two different contexts at last year’s (2010) RedState Gathering which were discordant – a real person with heartfelt convictions in the more private, “off-the-record: setting vs. his public speech the next day in which he came across as just another politician tailoring his message to the audience. Hopefully his campaign in the next few weeks will bring more resolution on that.

      • Thx for the extra effort CT, but it looks like I have more detail than you and that the only conservative credential issues were the innoculation program that he has now admitted was a mistake he would not repeat and his Texas Dream Act. I hope Perry supports a border fence before amnesty. If so, then he would seem to be 100% on the issues. I suspect Romney is the one with conservative credential issues and Bachmann’s problem is being loose with the facts and gaffes. more later

  2. I might add that Santorum also has an enemy in a fairly small but fiercely dedicated demographic — those who were cheering Toomey on in his 2004 primary race against the despicable Arlen Specter.

    For those who don’t know or don’t remember that race, Toomey lost to Specter by less than 2%. Specter was endorsed by both George W Bush and ……. Senator Rick Santorum.

    I pledged then never to forget, and never to forgive. Santorum has on a couple of occasions justified his vote. He’s never apologized or walked it back. In 2010, Toomey returned, after heading Club For Growth in the interim, to challenge Specter again. This time Specter changed parties to avoid the primary, but then he lost a Dem primary to Sestak, who Toomey beat in the general.

    Santorum rates for me right there with Ron Paul.

    • I totally agree with your comment (except your last sentence). I remember well that 2004 campaign and also pledged to not forget, which I have kept.

      This choosing of the Washington elite over conservative principles doomed Santorum’s reelection in 2006 and will continue to dog any effort of his to again seek elective office.

      But I am glad he at least has otherwise remained pro-life

    • I’m with you and it should also be remembered … the hit job Santorum did on Rand Paul when Santorum was hosting Friday’s on the Bill Bennett radio show. You see, Mitch’s Kentucky boy, Trey Grayson was “electable”.

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