General Grant understood one concept quite clearly. Look for where you have the strength in numbers, and use this strength to achieve a victory. A lot of battlefield tactical errors can still be overcome if you are stronger in number. I am going to apply this concept to the 2012 US Senate contests. Another thing I am going to do is not name any candidate or potential candidate name for these contests. I will not name any names because you who live in these states should be deciding who the candidate in your state will be. Do not be lazy and let some expert or some establishment politician in DC tell you who it will be. Instead of complaining about the insider politicians in your state GOP become an insider yourself. Become a PC, and maybe you will get picked to be a county chairman or a state delegate to the national convention. It can only happen when you get involved.
I will name some names from the 2010 US Senate elections. There is power in being an incumbent, and this is why only two incumbents, Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), lost in the general election. There were also three incumbents, Bob Bennett (R-UT), Arlen Spector (D-PA), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who lost in the primary. The incumbent Lisa Murkowski won the general election running as an independent. I believe she won because many of the Alaska GOP insiders were supporting her instead of the GOP winner, Joe Miller. Unlike Mike Lee (R-UT) Joe Miller supporters did not become insiders within the Alaska GOP to give him the party support he needed. Instead of just not liking what insiders are doing in your state party you need to step up and start replacing them.
There are 37 Rs and 30 Ds that are safe because they are not up in 2012. If we keep the Ds to winning only 10 and Rs win 23, then we have a super majority. If we keep the Ds to winning only 19 and Rs win 14, then we win a simple majority. There are 8 Rs who are incumbents seeking reelection, and there are 18 Ds who are incumbents seeking reelection, and there are 7 open seats. There are 19 seats from States that have a GOP Governor. That a majority of voters have decided to elect a GOP Governor is a sign of a possible positive trend for the GOP. If we win all of those we are still 4 seats short of a super majority. So, with all of this lay of the land analysis, and with no names of any candidates, I have listed below the states the Rs can win. I ranked them from most likely to least likely.
- North Dakota
- New Mexico
- New Jersey
- West Virginia
- New York
- Rhode Island
Finally I have a motivational video, but I need to warn you. It is laced with a lot of profanity that you will not want children or people at a workplace to hear. Watch the video if you are able to, and do not be lazy. Have Courage. Get Motivated. Get involved.
Cross-posted at The Minority Report